Dr. Stephan Thober

PostDoc

Computational Hydrosystems (CHS)
Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research - UFZ
Permoserstr. 15
04318 Leipzig


Fon: 0341 235 482324
Fax: 0341 235 1939

Stephan Thober

My work

Currently, I am leading the HOKLIM project, which investigates high-resolution climate projection for Europe with a focus on different levels of global warming (i.e., 1.5° K, 2° K, and 3 °K).

Further, I am interested in the representation of hydrologic processes within hydrologic and land-surface models, in particular their parametrization. I evaluate a multiscale Parameter Regionalization technique (MPR), presented first for the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), inside the state-of-the-art land-surface model Noah-MP. The goal is to obtain a flux matching of Noah-MP outputs at different resulutions.

In my PhD thesis, I worked on the statistical downscaling of meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and temperature) from climate models to hydrological models. The goal is to generate synthetic high-resolution fields that have the same statistical properties as observations.


Short CV

since 01|2016

PostDoc

2011 - 2015

PhD studies at Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ and Friedrich Schiller University of Jena

Topic "Evaluation and Disaggregation of Climate Model Outputs for European Drought Prediction" (graduated summa cum laude)

02|2010 - 08|2010

Diploma thesis "Averaging Principle for Markov Jump Processes and Applications to Enzyme Kinetics"

2005 - 2010

Studies in Mathematics
University of Greifswald, Germany

  • HIGRADE Conference 2013: Best presentation award (2nd)
  • 7th GEWEX Conference 2014: Recognized presentation
  • Helmholtz Association 2016: short-listed for PhD prize
  • Jena University 2016: PhD prize geosciences
  • UFZ 2017: UFZ Research Award 2017 as member of the mHM developer team

Projects

Publications

  1. S. Thober, R. Kumar, N. Wanders, A. Marx, M. Pan, O. Rakovec, L. Samaniego, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, and M. Zink:
    Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming. Environ Res Lett, 2017 pp. 1-22. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35
  2. M. Peichl, S. Thober, V. Meyer, and L. Samaniego: The Effect of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Maize Yield in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-144, in review, 2017.
  3. L. Samaniego, R. Kumar, S. Thober, O. Rakovec, M. Zink, N. Wanders, S. Eisner, H. Müller Schmied, E. H. Sutanudjaja, K. Warrach-Sagi, and S. Attinger: Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323-4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017.
  4. A. Marx, R. Kumar, S. Thober, M. Zink, N. Wanders, E.F. Wood, M. Pan, J. Sheffield, and L. Samaniego: Climate change alters low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-485, in review, 2017.
  5. M. Cuntz, J. Mai, L. Samaniego, M. Clark, V. Wulfmeyer, O. Branch, S. Attinger, S. Thober:
    The impact of standard and hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes in the Noah-MP land surface model
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, doi:10.1002/2016JD025097
  6. M. Zink, L. Samaniego, R. Kumar, S. Thober, J. Mai, D. Schäfer, A Marx:
    The German Drought Monitor.
    Environmental Research Letters, 2016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074002
  7. R.C. Nijzink, L. Samaniego, J. Mai, R. Kumar, S. Thober, M. Zink, D. Schaefer, H.H.G. Savenije, M. Hrachowitz:
    The importance of topography controlled sub-grid process heterogeneity and semi-quantitative prior constraints in distributed hydrological models
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016, doi:10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016
  8. O. Rakovec, R. Kumar, J. Mai, M. Cuntz, S. Thober, M. Zink, S. Attinger, D. Schäfer, M. Schrӧn, L. Samaniego:
    Multiscale and multivariate evaluation of water fluxes and states over European river basins
    Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0054.1
  9. S. Thober, R. Kumar, J. Sheffield, J. Mai, D. Schäfer, L. Samaniego:
    Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
    Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0053.1
  10. M. Cuntz, J. Mai, M. Zink, S. Thober, R. Kumar, D. Schäfer, M. Schrön, J. Craven, O. Rakovec, D. Spieler, V. Prykhodko, G. Dalmasso, J. Musuuza, B. Langenberg, S. Attinger, L. Samaniego:
    Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening
    Water Resources Research, 2015, DOI: 10.1002/2015WR016907
  11. S. Thober, J. Mai, M. Zink, L. Samaniego:
    Stochastic temporal disaggregation of monthly precipitation for regional gridded data sets
    Water Resources Research, 2014, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015930
  12. S. Thober,  L. Samaniego:
    Robust Ensemble Selection by Multivariate Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Characteristics
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2014, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020505
  1. Marx A, L Samaniego, R Kumar, S Thober, J Mai, and M Zink. 2016. “Der Dürremonitor - Aktuelle Information zur Bodenfeuchte in Deutschland”. in: G. Wernecke et al (Hrsg): Wasserressourcen - Wissen in Flussgebieten vernetzen, Forum für Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung; Heft 37.16, Seiten 131-142 ISBN: 978-3-88721-307-7, DOI: 10.14617/for.hydrol.wasbew.37.16

Conference contributions (since 2015)

  1. Stephan Thober, Naoki Mizukami, Luis Samaniego, Sabine Attinger, Martyn Clark, Matthias Cuntz. "Achieving scale-independent land-surface flux estimates – Application of the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) to the Noah-MP land-surface model across the contiguous USA", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 12-16 December 2016
  2. Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Ming Pan, Christel Prudhomme, Justin Sheffield, Niko Wanders, Eric Wood. "Exploring the mutual enhancement between droughts and heatwaves in Europe", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 12-16 December 2016
  3. Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew Newman, Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Andrew Wood, Martyn Clark, Luis Samaniego. "On Model Complexity and Parameter Regionalization for Continental Scale Hydrologic Simulations", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 12-16 December 2016
  4. Matthias Cuntz, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, Martyn Clark, Volker Wulfmeyer, Sabine Attinger, and Stephan Thober. "Impact of the hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes of the land surface model Noah-MP", EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  5. Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, Oldrich Rakovec, and Luis Samaniego. "How important are the descriptions of vegetation in distributed hydrologic models?". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  6. Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Reimund Schwarze, Volker Meyer, and Luis Samaniego. "Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany", EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  7. Juliane Mai, Matthias Cuntz, Mahyar Shafii, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, and Bryan Tolson. "Multi-objective vs. single-objective calibration of a hydrologic model using single- and multi-objective screening", EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  8. Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Justin Sheffield, David Schäfer, and Juliane Mai. "Forecasting European Droughts using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)", EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 12-17 April 2015
  9. Luis Samaniego, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Juliane Mai, Sabine Attinger, Matthias Cuntz, Martin Schrön, Stephan Thober, and Matthias Zink. "Searching for a robust parameter estimation strategy for large river basins". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 12-17 April 2015
  10. Matthias Cuntz, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, Martyn Clark, Volker Wulfmeyer, Sabine Attinger, Stephan Thober. "Hard-coded parameters have the largest impact on fluxes of the land surface model Noah-MP". AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-18 December 2015
  1. Matthias Cuntz, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, Martyn Clark, Oliver Branch, Volker Wulfmeyer, Sabine Attinger, Stephan Thober. "The impact of standard and hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes in the Noah-MP land surface model", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 12-16 December 2016
  2. S Thober, R Kumar, L Samaniego, J Mai, O Rakovec, and M Cuntz. "mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Scale-Independent Streamflow Simulations". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  3. Kumar R, J Mai, O Rakovec, M Zink, M Cuntz, S Thober, S Attinger, M Schroen, D Schaefer, and L Samaniego. "A spatially consistent seamless predictions of continental-scale hydrologic fluxes and states". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  4. Mai J, M Cuntz, M Zink, S Thober, R Kumar, D Schäfer, M Schrön, J Craven, O Rakovec, D Spieler, V Prykhodko, G Dalmasso, J Musuuza, B Langenberg, S Attinger, and L Samaniego. "Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 17-22 April 2016
  5. Michael Peichl, Volker Meyer, Luis Samaniego, and Stephan Thober. "Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 12-17 April 2015
  6. Juliane Mai, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Oliver Branch, Volker Wulfmeyer, Martyn Clark, Sabine Attinger, Rohini Kumar, and Matthias Cuntz. "Sensitivity Analysis of the Land Surface Model NOAH-MP for Different Model Fluxes". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 12-17 April 2015
  7. Andreas Marx, Matthias Zink, Julia Pommerencke, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, and Luis Samaniego. "The German Drought Monitor". EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 12-17 April 2015
  8. Rohini Kumar, Juliane Mai, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, Sabine Attinger, David Schäfer, Martin Schrön, Luis Samaniego. "Regionalized Hydrologic Parameters Estimates for a Seamless Prediction of Continental scale Water Fluxes and States". AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-18 December 2015
  9. Juliane Mai, Matthias Cuntz, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Mahyar Shafii, Bryan Tolson. "Multi-Objective vs. Single Objective Calibration of a Hydrologic Model using Either Different Hydrologic Signatures or Complementary Data Sources". AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-18 December 2015
  10. Stephan Thober, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, David J Gochis, Rohini Kumar, Matthias Cuntz . "mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Land Surface and Hydrologic Models". AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-18 December 2015

Please find a selection of my posters here.


Journal Referee

Geophysical Research Letters (AGU), Water Resources Research (AGU), Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Journal of Hydrometeorology (AMS)