Stakeholder based land use scenarios
Scenarios support practitioners in dealing with uncertain futures. Within PLUREL, qualitative land use scenarios are developed together with local and regional stakeholders in order to strengthen coping capacities with regard to demographically and economically induced land use changes. These "scenario games" place actors in a virtual future and ignite discussions on drivers of land use change, conflicts and appropriate steering options. A main strength of the method is that it provides insight into related viewpoints and value-judgements of participants because it is beyond the daily decision-making practice. Results are biased, as it is unlikely that participants represent all possible actors involved in land use development and planning.
Good experiences were gained with structuring the scenario game into three consecutive stages. Firstly participants developed a spatial scenario. As an input, a short story set in the year 2025 was read out to characterise the scenario. Participants had a blank map, a number of land use tokens according to the scenario as well as pens and glue to map out and sketch their vision of land use development. Then, a focus group was conducted regarding drivers of land use change and conflicts. Finally, the desirability of the resultant scenario was critically assessed. The method furthers deliberative practice and the scientists' grasp of practitioners' concerns.
Contacts
Dagmar Haase, Annette Bauer, Iris Reuther (Büro für Urbane Projekte), Bertram Schiffers (stadt : plan : dialog)