Research for the Environment

Protected Areas in Germany under Global Change - Risks and Policy Options

(Funded by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation)

Climate change will modify protected areas in Germany substantially in the coming decades - independently of the uncertainty in regional patterns of climate change. This problem challenges the national nature protection strategy, including the adherence to international agreements.

In this project, risk assessment for a comprehensive and representative list of German protected areas will be performed applying newest methods of the statistic and process-based simulation of climate change effects. Thereby it will be assessed with which probability the respective protection purpose can be achieved in the near future. From the ecological risk assessment options for a more dynamic nature protection policy are to be derived. The primary goal of the study is it thus to examine for a comprehensive and representative list of protected areas to what extent the climate change enhances the risk with respect to the respective protection purposes. The second goal is, to formulate concrete steps towards necessary adaptations at least at national scales.